14Smith School of Enterprise and the EnvironmentSmith feeling impoverished due to the recession. At the present time sovereign debt in some developed countries has returned to the post Second World War level of around 120 per cent of GDP, which makes a cash flow of this magnitude very unlikely. A much higher level of public engagement with the issue of climate change and a greater awareness of the risks posed will be needed for governments to be able to commit to such amounts [11]. Analysis of Current National Targets and ActionsAnalyses by UNEP and the WRI, among others, have suggested that the pledges made to the Copenhagen Accord, now adopted under the UNFCCC process, together are - conditional on various assumptions - probably not sufficient to ensure that the global mean temperature does not rise above the 2 ?C limit established in the Agreement. At present it has been estimated that the current pledges equate to a greater than 50 per cent chance that warming will exceed 3 °C by 2100 [12]. The Annex I pledges together will, if implemented, result in a reduction in emissions from developed countries by 2020 of 12-19 per cent below 1990 levels. This falls short of the range of emissions reductions (25 to 40 per cent) that the IPCC states would be necessary to keep within the 2 ?C temperature increase range [13]. Japan and Norway are the only two developed countries to make sufficient pledges: of 25 per cent and 30-40 per cent below 1990, respectively. The EU has pledged deeper cuts, of 30 per cent, should other nations sign up to a global deal. The US has pledged to reduce emissions by 17 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020. This equates to around 3 per cent below 1990 levels - less ambitious than the reductions of the Kyoto Protocol. Canada, by aligning itself with the US, is the only country to weaken its ambitions by increasing its emissions allowances relative to those it agreed to in the Kyoto Protocol.The Copenhagen Accord marked the first time that some developing countries volunteered to undertake emissions actions. Indonesia was the first non-Annex I country to pledge its commitments. Indonesia has pledged emissions cuts of 26 per cent from current levels by 2020 increasing to 41 per cent with assistance. China and India have pledged emission intensity reductions of 40-45 per cent and 20-25 per cent relative to 2005 by 2020, respectively. These pledges from the group of rapidly emerging economies emphasize the need to differentiate this group from the poorer developing nations.On the positive side these pledges represent a very significant shift beyond both the business-as-usual scenario and the original protocol position. They mark a significant step forward. What these analyses point out is that these commitments on emissions reductions will over the coming years need to be ratcheted up to meet the 2 ?C rise limitation. It is relevant to recall that the Montreal Protocol of 1987, requiring countries to reduce CFC emissions to manage the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere, was quantitatively insufficient for the intended purpose. Subsequently the CFC emissions reduction programme was very substantially improved, and the ozone reduction problem has been managed. As new low CO2, energy efficient economically viable processes and technologies are developed and dispersed, and the economic risks attached to climate change become more apparent, there is good reason to believe that the same will happen with CO2 emissions.Assessment of Key PledgesAs the submissions made were decided upon at a national level by individual countries it is likely that the targets put forward are realistic and will be met. However, it could be useful to assess how ambitious or feasible the emissions-reductions targets are. Here the submissions of the major three emitters are assessed; the US, the EU and China.ChinaAs the largest emitter of CO2 in the world, China's actions towards climate change are particularly important. China has pledged to reduce its CO2 emissions per unit of GDP ('emissions intensity') by 40 to 45 per cent by 2020 compared to 2005. This target ensures that emissions are limited without constraining economic growth. When examining China's past emissions it is found Chapter 3Chapter

EnvironmentSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment15that from 1990 to 2005 the carbon intensity of its economy improved by 36 per cent without any international commitments. China's pledge has therefore been seen by some as simply a continuation of current trends [14]. However, the outcomes of these assessments all depend upon what is included in the baseline. When other nation's pledges are converted to a similar measure, i.e. intensity, it has been found that China's target is comparable to that of developed countries such as the US and the EU [15].China's pledge also included other actions; to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15 per cent by 2020, and actions of re-forestation. China is currently leading the race in green technology. In 2009 China had the greatest aggregate investment in clean energy, with investment levels of US$34.6 billion. This is in comparison with an investment of US$18.6 billion from the US who ranked number two [16]. It has the world's largest manufacturing capacity for solar collectors and solar cells and is likely to soon reach the same status for wind turbines [17]. Most remarkable is their reforestation programme. The Loess plateau project, initiated some 12 years ago, has resulted in the greening and reforestation of an area the size of Belgium. In the run-up to Copenhagen President Hu Jintao committed China to completing the task by 2020: this will correspond to an area the size of France, and will be a truly remarkable and exemplary achievement. China has pledged to increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares and forest stock volume by 1.3 billion cubic meters by 2020 from 2005 levels [18]. China's climate change policies will provide significant emissions reductions compared to a business as usual scenario. The energy efficiency and renewable energy being developed mean that the electricity networks in China will have to be modernised to be able to integrate these intermittent energy sources. In order for China to meet its targets it will need to intensify its efforts to make structural changes in its economy and increase the service sector share [19].Figure 3 - Conceptual diagram showing the effects of moving from a 20% emissions reduction target to a 30% target on European GDP and unemployment rates, based upon GEM-E3 simulations. Source: Adapted from Jaeger et al. 20113Chapter 3Chapter 3: Copenhagen and Cancun