22Smith School of Enterprise and the EnvironmentSmith Figure 4 shows the business as usual emissions trajectories prior to 2007(curve a, 2007) and after the global debt crisis (curve b, 2009). Trajectories are also shown for stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent (curve c) and 450 ppm CO2 equivalent (curves d, e and f). Curves d, e and f all represent pathways which achieve the same objective; stabilisation at 450 ppm. These curves demonstrate that it is the total emissions over the time period shown that determines the asymptote, not the rate of emissions. It is the build up of CO2 and other GHG's in the atmosphere which causes the temperature to rise. As recently pointed out [33], it is therefore possible to estimate the total amount of fossil fuel (expressed as C) burnt to CO2 that would generate an estimated mean temperature rise of 2 ?C. This is 1 trillion tonnes of carbon, with a standard uncertainty of 1.6 to 2.6 ?C. Over half of this amount has already been emitted. (Note that this estimate excludes other GHGs).The curves in figure 4 can be simply restated. In 2010, global anthropogenic activity is resulting in the emission of 36 bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent, as shown on the upper business-as-usual curve. Curve d demonstrates that global emissions should be reduced to 18 bn tonnes by 2050, i.e. a 50 per cent decrease. Taking 18 billion tonnes per annum as averaged across the expected population of 9 billion by mid-century yields 2 tonnes per person. Based on this figure, the UK Government revised its commitment of a 60 per cent reduction by 2050 made in 2003 to a reduction of 80 per cent, made in 2007. Currently UK emissions are at 10 tonnes per person per annum, so the British commitment equates to a reduction to 2 tonnes by 2050. This unilateral commitment, followed now by the EU, represents an interesting political and ethical statement. It suggests that the emissions target per country by mid-century could be determined Chapter 4Chapter Figure 4- Predicted future greenhouse emissions according to several different scenarios; trajectory a represents the 2007 business-as-usual predicted emissions; b shows the 2009 business-as-usual predicted emissions following the global economic collapse; c shows an emissions trajectory enabling stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent; d, e and f show three different pathways to stabilisation at 450 ppm CO2 equivalent. Note: Emissions expressed in gigatonnes of carbon, to convert to gigatonnes of carbon dioxide multiply by 3.67. Adapted from UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

EnvironmentSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment23by population size, and not by development status (Annex I, non-Annex I; or developed, rapidly emerging, and developing). This does provide a potentially equitable way forward, and we return to this in Chapter 5 below. Corporate Sector ActionsThe stance of the corporate sector is critical in innovating market-facing solutions and in demonstrating the economic feasibility of defossilising the global economy. There has been progress in this area; a significant proportion of the corporate sector has indicated a desire to be involved in moving towards a low carbon economy [34]. An example of this is the Carbon Disclosure Project, a project which holds the world's largest database on corporate actions and information on climate change. Initiatives such as this are voluntary and so the information put forward is not verifiable. However, it is a good first step. To move these projects on would require compliance and review systems to be put in place. Governments should act to incentivise the private sector to make the transition to the green economy. Regulations should be put in place to encourage long-term thinking in the corporate sector that will incorporate climate change mitigation and adaptation. Long-term stabilising policies should be put in place to give the sector confidence in investing in green technology and in making the transformation to a green economy. There is evidence to suggest that a switch to a green economy could be very profitable for many nations, sectors, industries and firms. The total value of the carbon market grew 6 per cent to US$144 billion by the end of last year despite global GDP falling by 0.6 per cent and developed countries GDP falling by 3.2 per cent [35]. It has been estimated that by 2020 the world market for environmental technologies will have grown to around EURO2.2 trillion [36]. Innovation can lead to economic growth [37] by developing new industries and creating new employment. In the UK, the sectors that are likely to benefit from a transition to a green economy, namely the finance and science based sectors, are those that the UK excels in. The transition is likely, in fact, to benefit the UK and US even if it is costly to the world economy overall [38]. The UK Government Stern Review [32] projected that preventative action taken now to limit temperature increase to 2 ?C should be expected to cost between -2 per cent and +5 per cent of global GDP by 2050, (although this is commonly expressed as +1 per cent). More recently, a study of the cost of German climate change policy targets to reduce Germany's emissions by 40 per cent under 1990 levels by 2020 was undertaken using a systems dynamics model [39]. This study found that the German target would create at least 500, 000 jobs and add at least 2-3 per cent (EURO 70 billion) to the German GDP by 2020. These figures demonstrate the sensitivity of the outputs to the nature and input of the economic models used [40]. The global financial crisis highlighted limitations in equilibrium economic models that are often currently used to assess policy options [22]. These models can inherently exclude win-win strategies in terms of climate policy through the assumption that there is a single equilibrium state for the economic system [22]. Research is now being undertaken to rectify this. One initial outcome is the study on the EU target mentioned in Chapter 3 where the increased ambitions incentivised higher investment levels, job creation and GDP growth [22]. While moving to a green economy is likely to generate a net benefit to economies, there will be losses from some sectors, such as the fossil fuel sector [17]. At present, this sector represents a challenge to the acceptance of climate change policy (and science) both in government and in public opinion. Last year in the US the lobby seeking to undermine climate change science spent around US$170 million on lobbying against climate change science, while only US$22 million was spent in support of all environmental causes. 4Chapter 4Chapter 4: Learning from the Negotiation Process