4Smith School of Enterprise and the EnvironmentSmith

EnvironmentSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment5IntroductionRecent painstaking analyses, based on ten different indicators of global temperature change which include air and sea temperatures, melting ice and rising sea levels, produced by US and UK Government and Meteorological Office scientists, show that global temperatures have been rising since the 1850s [1]. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conclude from separate data that June 2010 was the hottest on record [2]. In 2010, record high temperatures were reported in 17 countries, including 53.5 ?C in Pakistan. Temperatures in Moscow in the summer of 2010 were 20 ?C above normal. Global temperatures reached a record high for 2010, as predicted by climate modellers. By contrast, solar activity this decade is reported to be at an unusually low level. The global average temperature rise of 0.4 ?C over the past two decades can be safely attributed to the rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) levels in the earth's atmosphere - largely due to use of fossil fuels and to continuing deforestation, as set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their latest report. The need for urgent political action to manage this existential threat to our global civilisation could not be clearer. The Conference of Parties (COP) rounds of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2010 in Cancun concluded with the 'Cancun Agreements' which represents the best outcome possible under the circumstances. The negotiations ended with an agreement that concreted and built on the Copenhagen Accord produced at last year's COP. However, despite the relatively good outcome, action is still a long way from what is necessary to ensure global warming does not continue to dangerous levels. Individual governments should take more action to curb their emissions. Urgency needs to be re-injected into the negotiations.Here we provide an appraisal of the UNFCCC process and an analysis of the variety of action plans, at national, regional and international levels, that will now be required to ensure the emissions reductions so urgently needed. The paper is structured as follows. Chapter 2 examines the outcomes of the UNFCCC negotiation process in the context of the history of the climate change negotiations. Chapter 3 then addresses the outcomes of the Cancun climate change negotiations. The key lessons that can be taken from the negotiations so far are discussed in Chapter 4.Chapter 5 addresses the future and the steps that are needed to progress the negotiations and action on climate change. Chapter 6 reflects on the potential parallel proceses that will leed to progress in climate change action.Finally Chapter 7 summarises the key findings of the paper.Chapter 1: The Scope of the StudyChapter 1The Scope of the Study