page 1
page 2
page 3
page 4
page 5
page 6
page 7
page 8
page 9
page 10
page 11
page 12
page 13
page 14
page 15
page 16
page 17
page 18
page 19
page 20
page 21
page 22
page 23
page 24
page 25
page 26
page 27
page 28
page 29
page 30
page 31
page 32
page 33
page 34
page 35
page 36
page 37
page 38
page 39
page 40
page 41
page 42
page 43
page 44
page 45
page 46
page 47
page 48
page 49
page 50
page 51
page 52
page 53
page 54
page 55
page 56
page 57
page 58
page 59
page 60
page 61
page 62
page 63
page 64
page 65
page 66
page 67
page 68
page 69
page 70
page 71
page 72
page 73
page 74
page 75
page 76
page 77
page 78
page 79
page 80
page 81
page 82
page 83
page 84
page 85
page 86
page 87
page 88
page 89
page 90
page 91
page 92
page 93
page 94
page 95
page 96
page 97
page 98
page 99
page 100
page 101
page 102
page 103
page 104
page 105
page 106
page 107
page 108
page 109
page 110
page 111
page 112
page 113
page 114
page 115
page 116
page 117
page 118
page 119
page 120
page 121
page 122
page 123
page 124
page 125
page 126
page 127
page 128
page 129
page 130
page 131
page 132
page 133
page 134
page 135
page 136
page 137
page 138
page 139
page 140
page 141
page 142
page 143
page 144
page 145
page 146
page 147
page 148
page 149
page 150
page 151
page 152
page 153
page 154
page 155
page 156
page 157
page 158
page 159
page 160
page 161
page 162
page 163
page 164
page 165
page 166
page 167
page 168
page 169
page 170
page 171
page 172
page 173
page 174
page 175
page 176
page 177
page 178
page 179
page 180
page 181
page 182
page 183
page 184
page 185
page 186
page 187
page 188
page 189
page 190
page 191
page 192
page 193
page 194
page 195
page 196

Africa's annual economic growth rate, which reached an all- time peak of 6.8% in 2007, is expected to slow from 5.5% in 2008 to just over 5% this year. This is in line with the rest of the developing world but much higher than in advanced economies, which will do very well not to dip into recession. Oil prices are already only a third of what they were a few months ago, thereby confounding virtually all budgetary plans by producer nations. The danger is that without the oil revenue windfalls, social issues such as education, health, provision of clean water and so on will now be neglected. This means that it will be even more difficult for many African countries to reach anywhere near their Millennium Development Goals. Strong growth in countries like Botswana, Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Malawi in Sub- Saharan Africa was generated by both a growth in exports and in private consumption. Data indicates that private consumption has been the main engine of growth for these economies. With the global slowdown, orders for exports are slowing. As a result, domestic consumption is falling and a drop in production could lead to rising inflation. BUSINESS 122 able to ride out the storm and hang in there until better times reappeared. Planners in both Africa and the advanced economies hoped that the financial storm would blow over fairly rapidly, especially as Western governments were prepared to pour billions into shoring up tottering finance houses. When it became clear that the rot had spread more deeply and widely than had first been anticipated, Western governments went further. Many nationalised their banks and other lending institutions and urged the rest to make credits available to businesses and homebuyers. Most central banks also slashed interest rates. The expectation was that the extra income in household pockets would be spent on the high street rather than put into savings ( the low interest rates would act as a disincentive to save) thereby energising the market and keeping economies afloat. In such a scenario, demand would fall – but not too drastically, and Africa, which depends on the export of commodities for 60% of its income, would not be too badly affected. There was also speculation that capital would flow to the ' safer havens' in Africa, particularly portfolio capital into stock markets and bonds. In addition, it was hoped that the Asian region, including China and India, would continue their upward growth curve and absorb any surplus commodity output from Africa. It was also expected that the demand for African gold and gemstones would rise as increasing numbers of people looked for tangible assets in a period of financial turmoil. It now appears that these projections were too optimistic. Despite all kinds of incentives and stimuli, the global economy remains sluggish at best and people just cannot be persuaded to go out and ' spend, spend, spend'. ... it was hoped that the asian region would continue their upward growth curve and absorb any surplus commodity output from africa What does this mean for Africa? msafiri One of the most serious fall- outs of the economic crisis is that official development aid ( ODI) is likely to be slashed just at a time when Africa needs all the support it can get. In 2007, Africa received US$ 37.7 billion in aid and according to pledges made at the Gleneagles G8 Summit, would have received an additional US$ 25 billion a year by 2010 thus doubling aid to Africa compared to 2004. This is now unlikely to happen and, in fact, aid volumes are already shrinking. In October, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation reported that only 10% of the US$ 22 billion pledged earlier last year to help ease food shortages has so far been handed over.